Fuel shocks, crime and digital risks converge
The Communications Risk Information Centre (COMRiC) is warning that the war in the Middle East is fast becoming a South African communications risk and not just an energy crisis.
As conflict keeps pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil and gas chokepoints, the danger for South Africa is that higher fuel costs, supply delays, infrastructure strain, and opportunistic crime begin to hit the communications systems that keep business, banking, and daily life connected.
The strait normally carries about 20% of global oil and LNG flows, which is why instability there quickly becomes a price and logistics shock everywhere else.
COMRiC says the risk is indirect but very real. South Africa’s communications sector depends on diesel for backup power, on secure planning to move equipment and maintain sites, on digital payment systems to keep commerce flowing, and on resilient networks to support consumers and companies through disruption.
In a country with 45.34 million internet users, equal to 75% of the population even a partial weakening of network resilience has wide economic and social consequences.
COMRiC CEO, Adv Thokozani Mvelase, says: “A distant war no longer stays distant. It travels through fuel prices, freight routes, supply chains, cables, digital systems, and criminal opportunity. For South Africa, this means the communications sector is exposed long before any direct physical threat reaches our shores. If diesel becomes more expensive or harder to secure, if logistics slow down and if already vulnerable infrastructure comes under greater pressure, the effect is felt in connectivity, service continuity, operating costs and consumer confidence.”
One of the clearest areas of concern is diesel availability. Network operators have been forced to rely on diesel and battery power to keep services running, and that many have diverted funds away from expansion and technology upgrades towards security and fuel costs. In other words, fuel is now part of network resilience itself. A Middle East shock that drives up diesel prices or disrupts supply can therefore feed directly into the cost and reliability of keeping towers, base stations, switching facilities and support operations running.
COMRiC says South Africa is already feeling the pressure. Operators are already managing persistent power instability, rising security costs, and worsening criminal attacks on infrastructure. The cost of stolen telecoms equipment jumped almost two hundred percent to R200 million in 2025. That points to a dangerous overlap between economic stress and the spectre of crime. When backup systems, batteries, generators, diesel stores, and remote sites become more critical, they also become more attractive targets.
“The communications sector is not operating in a vacuum. We are already seeing how power disruption, infrastructure theft, vandalism, and cyber risk combine to raise pressure on networks. A global conflict that intensifies fuel strain and cost inflation can deepen those vulnerabilities. That has consequences for companies trying to stay online, for households trying to stay connected, and for consumers who now depend on digital platforms and payment systems for everyday life.”
The consumer impact can be broad. Higher fuel and freight costs can translate into more expensive service delivery, slower repairs, reduced resilience during outages and rising pressure on data and communications costs.
Digital payments are now a strategic priority for the South African Reserve Bank as part of a more inclusive and secure national payments system, which means communications disruption is also a financial system issue. COMRiC says companies should act now. They should stress-test diesel supply arrangements, strengthen site security, review backup power plans, tighten cyber vigilance, coordinate more closely across operations, security, and risk teams, and prepare clear customer communications for service interruptions.
The wider lesson is that South Africa’s economy is deeply dependent on always-on digital connectivity: “The message is simple. The Middle East war is not only an oil story. It is a business continuity story, a communications resilience story, and a consumer risk story. South African companies need to prepare now.”
